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Jon Ralston
Business has Senate anxiety
By Jon Ralston / Staff Writer

By now, the business community must be - should be - in a flat-out panic.

Despite a pair of vacuous candidates, the Democrats are poised to take over the state Senate, thus giving the party control of the Legislature. Considering the governor is an inert, almost irrelevant figure, the chamber set and its allies should be mortified.

I do not suggest that the unions will control the agenda, that the right-to-work law will be repealed. Nor do I posit that the taxing supplicants who hold sway with Democrats will gain a larger piece of the pie. Nor do I forecast that more liberal policies on everything from the budget to health care will be enacted in 2009.

Perhaps nothing that radical will occur. But if Joe Heck or Bob Beers lose - and either or both might - the combination of a Speaker Barbara Buckley, which is already assured, and a Majority Leader Steven Horsford would be bone-chilling for many in the business community, which has counted on a GOP upper-house backstop since 1993.

The most obvious example was 2003, when the business folks, petrified of the gross receipts tax, managed to win enough votes in the state Senate to block any chance of the gubernatorial proposal from being enacted. And there are countless, less high-profile instances of Assembly bills entombed in GOP-controlled Senate committees: Randolph Townsend's Commerce Committee is a favorite burial ground.

Imagine what a difference a Horsford-run upper house would be from the one currently lorded over by Bill Raggio. Instead of cemeteries, you would have petri dishes to grow all manner of what might be perceived as anti-business legislation. If Horsford and Buckley could cooperate, they could pass an agenda very much different from any seen in nearly two decades.

(Now would probably be an inopportune time to point out that the last time two parties controlled both houses of the Legislature, the then-largest tax increase in history was enacted. But in 1991, there was a Democratic governor (Bob Miller) and a pair of Democratic houses and no two-thirds requirement for tax increases.)

The silver lining for the business folks is that even if Beers and Heck were to lose, the Democrats would have only 12 seats - two shy of the two-thirds needed to enact any taxing proposals. But the margin for error then becomes quite thin and a couple of Republicans might be willing to join the majority on such votes. The closeness would have to make the business community a little shaky.

The state Republican Party has been of no help in rebutting the almost daily assault by the Democrats on Heck and Beers. The attacks have been through billboards, Web sites and, mostly, through the mail. The stretches and distortions have been spectacular, but perhaps effective as the two weak candidates, Allison Copening (Beers) and Shirley Breeden (Heck), have been all but invisible.

That's why a new PAC/LLC called the "Committee to Improve Nevada's Economy and Education System" - they always find such catchy titles, don't they? - has been formed to try to combat the Democratic assault. It is headed by veteran lobbyist Mary Lau of the retail association and surely is being funded by the usual business suspects. It may be helpful if it is not too little, too late - the first mail piece, defending Beers and assailing Copening, was scheduled to go out this week.

The 2009 matrix is the potential short-term nightmare for the business crew. But the real sleepless nights could come in 2011, when new legislative districts and congressional seats will be drawn by the Legislature. If the Democrats control both houses in that session, they may be able to secure control of Carson City for the next decade.

The business folks must know this. Hence, the flat-out panic.

In Business commentator Jon Ralston also hosts the news discussion program "Face to Face With Jon Ralston" on Las Vegas ONE, publishes the daily e-mail newsletter "RalstonFlash.com" and writes columns and a political notebook for the Las Vegas Sun. To subscribe to Flash, go to www.RalstonFlash.com, or call 990-2550. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or by e-mail at ralston@vegas.com.

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