For those of us who are by nature optimistic and are always trying to find the silver lining, the recent news of the shutdown in construction at Echelon came as a shock.
A $4.75 billion project being built by one of the city's best companies, Boyd Gaming, shut down? Say it ain't so!
Those of us who have lived in Las Vegas for a long time know that this type of action happens occasionally. Real estate expert John Restrepo recently pointed out to me that many of the young executives working in Las Vegas today have never seen a serious economic downturn and don't know how exactly to respond to it since its uncharted territory for them.
The difficulty the Cosmopolitan has had getting built is one of the most recent examples. That project was in the news again last week when Deutsche Bank announced it was foreclosing on developer Ian Bruce Eichner, who had defaulted on a $760 million loan.
What happens next is anybody's guess with many suggesting MGM Mirage could have an interest since its CityCenter and Bellagio surround the Cosmopolitan. But MGM Mirage may not have an appetite for the property with other projects of more importance on the company's agenda.
Those of us who have been around a little longer may recall the saga of the Stratosphere and how hard that was to get built.
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| Cranes tower above Boyd Gaming's Echelon construction site Aug. 4 after work was delayed on the project. |
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In the early 1990s Bob Stupak was the dreamer who saw potential in building a tall structure on the Strip with thrill rides hanging off its sides. Stupak already had a site, his much-maligned Vegas World casino, and once work got started, numerous construction delays made locals wonder if the thing would ever get built.
Stupak eventually brought on an equity partner in Minnesota-based Grand Casinos, which had some success managing tribal properties, a market that, at the time, was in its infancy.
The 1,149-foot structure finally opened in 1996 with a big party. The hors d'oeuvres from that party weren't even stale yet when the Stratosphere found itself in bankruptcy. The filing occurred while construction was under way for a crucial second room tower. The bankruptcy enabled opportunistic Carl Icahn to scoop up the Stratosphere. It wasn't until 2001 that the second tower was finally completed.
So Echelon's shutdown wasn't unprecedented - but it was the biggest project to be mothballed in the middle of things.
As was the case for the Stratosphere and the Cosmopolitan, the question now is what's next?
Boyd has indicated it expects construction to start up in three or four quarters, or roughly by next spring or summer. If there's a silver lining to the story, it may be related to something that was said in last week's MGM Mirage earnings conference call.
During a question-and-answer session with analysts, MGM Mirage executives noted capacity expansion isn't going to be as great as was expected and that's going to help the operators that already have new properties well under way - such as Wynn Resorts, Station Casinos, MGM Mirage and the developers of Fontainebleau and the M Resort.
Bobby Baldwin, MGM Mirage's chief design and construction officer, verbalized what many have suspected all along.
"The amount of new capacity that's going to hit Las Vegas is going to be a fraction of what people thought was going to be a year ago," Baldwin said in the call. "I mean a dramatic decline because of many reasons, not only the credit market (but) construction costs (and) the ability to finance these projects.
"It really boils down to, if you're not almost done, you're just not going to do anything for a long time in Las Vegas. And that, of course, accrues to the benefit of the incumbents and as long as this market continues to show its durability - and a lot of people are coming here even right now - we will continue to build our market share as we are. We think that's a positive."
Anthony Marnell III, who's building M on the south end of the valley, made a special point of telling reporters at the resort's topping-off ceremony last week that his property is completely financed and will open in March.
It also stands to reason that if the construction cycle is stretched out, Las Vegas will be able to absorb the new capacity a little easier.
According to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority's casino development and construction bulletin, last updated at the end of May, Las Vegas was on track to add 30,895 rooms by the end of 2010 and another 1,200 by the end of 2011.
Echelon was to come on line by the third quarter of 2010. Now, it's going to be delayed until the second or third quarter of 2011 at the earliest and most would probably bet it's not going to happen until late 2011 or 2012.
Considering Echelon would add 4,910 rooms, the city is looking at about a 15 percent decrease in its inventory through 2008 and the following two years.
The big properties still in the pipeline are Wynn's Encore (2,034 rooms in December), Fontainebleau (3,812 rooms in fall 2009) and CityCenter (6,347 rooms by late 2009). Incidentally, the Cosmopolitan, also scheduled for a late 2009 opening, would add 2,998 rooms.
In light of the recent foreclosure news on the Cosmopolitan, we'll have to wait to see whether that opening also will be delayed and how it will affect the city's room inventory - and whether it will result in good or bad news for tourism here.
In other tourism news:
The New Zealand-based Minus Group has announced it will open a Minus 5 Ice Lounge at Mandalay Place, the retail space between Mandalay Bay and Luxor.
The Minus 5, named for -5 degrees Celsius, or about 23 degrees Fahrenheit, will be an all-ages hangout made entirely of ice. The 1,200-square-foot location will have ice walls, an ice bar, ice chairs and even glasses made out of ice.
The lounge will serve exotic vodka cocktails as well as "mocktails" for guests under 21.
The Las Vegas Minus 5, opening in September, will be the first of its kind in the United States with other similar venues planned in New York, Miami, Los Angeles and Hawaii.
The concept, developed by founder Craig Ling, began in Auckland, New Zealand, in 2002 with additional openings in Australia and Portugal. In addition to planned developments in the United States, Ling and his team look to expand to India, Singapore, Dubai and the Philippines next year.
In a city where the lounges encourage a less-is-more philosophy on attire, Minus 5 will go the opposite direction. In fact, as part of the $30 admission fee, guests will be issued sheepskin-lined parkas, gloves and booties.
The rather steep cost of getting in pays for crystalline ice delivered from Canada and those icy glasses, made from frozen New Zealand spring water.
And, probably, the utility bill.
- Last week, I noted that Stars & Stripes Air Tours has begun flying out of its heliport at Fifth Street and Cheyenne Avenue in North Las Vegas.
Now, the company is offering a 20 percent discount to people with a Nevada driver's license or an active military ID card or student ID card from UNLV or the College of Southern Nevada on any of the company's 10 air tours through the end of September.
Eligible patrons will pay $80 instead of $100, for example, for the 15-minute nighttime tour of the Las Vegas Strip.
Stars & Stripes Air Tours also flies routes to the Grand Canyon and over Hoover Dam as well as the Strip.
US Airways, the second-busiest air carrier at McCarran International Airport, has undergone a remarkable turnaround for its on-time performance.
In the Transportation Department compilation of arrivals in the first half of 2007, US Airways was dead last among 10 commercial carriers. But in the same time frame for 2008, the airline finished first after a second-place ranking for the month of June.
The airline's managers have acknowledged that they have tinkered with their departure and arrival times, building in more time for flights to reach their destinations, which some may argue is cheating. But the fact is that if a flight arrives within 14 minutes of its scheduled arrival time, the department counts it as on time.
US Airways didn't fare quite as well in bag mishandling (seventh out of 10) or customer complaints (ninth out of 10).
The airline's big rival in Las Vegas, Southwest Airlines, was third in on-time performance, fourth in bag mishandling and first in lowest number of customer complaints.
US Airways also landed atop another list they didn't want to be on. Time magazine ranked the airline as the stingiest in the air among carriers that charge extra for things that used to be free. It earned that dubious distinction by being the first company to charge passengers for soft drinks and bottled water.
- Speaking of nickel-and-diming in the air, JetBlue announced last week that it has begun charging $7 for its new "eco-friendly" pillow and blanket packages on flights longer than two hours.
The pillows and blankets were developed by CleanBrands LLC with fabric technology that blocks dust mites, mold spores, pollen and pet dander. The packets come with a $5 coupon that can be used at Bed Bath & Beyond.
Las Vegas-based Allegiant Air recently reported its July traffic statistics that included this eye-popping figure: a load factor of 95.2 percent on its scheduled flights.
The load factor is the percentage of seats occupied by paying customers.
Most airlines are happy with loads in the 80s, but Allegiant's performance sets a high bench mark that helps assure the company profitability. Allegiant is one of the few airlines that has been able to accomplish that in recent quarters.
Richard N. Velotta covers tourism for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4061 or by e-mail at velotta@lasvegassun.com.