Although a series of openings turned the city's economic fortunes around in the past, William Eadington said the next wave of property openings may not have the same results because the conditions that have brought the economy down are so dramatically different from in the past.

Eadington, a professor of economics and director of the Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming at UNR, was a keynote speaker at the Casino Marketing 2008 conference July 22-24 at Paris Las Vegas, sponsored by Raving Consulting Co. and BNP Media Gaming Group.

The annual conference brings casino marketers from across the country to Las Vegas to discuss how to draw customers to their properties. The event also includes a presentation on the best and worst casino marketing promotions of the previous year.

But Eadington's analysis of the economy was a big draw.

"It's as scary as anything we've seen since the 1920s," he said of the present economy.

Eadington said the current downturn is different from those in 2001-02 and 1991-92 because more sectors of the economy are affected. The unprecedented rise in energy prices has affected all forms of travel and the transportation of goods, resulting in higher food prices and greater restraints on consumer spending.

The subprime mortgage crisis has put thousands of homes in foreclosure. The combination of those two problems contributed to a third: a lack of consumer confidence, which has plummeted to its lowest level since 1990.

What that means for Las Vegas is a belt-tightening characterized by limited travel and smaller expense accounts, Eadington said.

"There are fewer visits per customer and lower budgets for those who do come," he said.

Eadington said the relative absence of new properties - a factor that helped Las Vegas recover rapidly from earlier downturns - means a quick recovery isn't likely.

There was no discernible uptick in the local economy after the opening of Las Vegas Sands' Palazzo. Eadington said that's because many might have perceived the property as an extension of the Venetian and not on the "must-see" list of properties. He expects the same thing may occur with the opening of Encore at Wynn Las Vegas later this year.

Steve Wynn, he said, has been a master at generating enthusiasm for his properties in the past, but the Encore opening could be a little different.

"Encore will be opening into the face of a hurricane," Eadington said. "It will be interesting to see how Mr. Wynn manages these economic times."

A saturation of the gaming market nationwide may have finally brought an end to Las Vegas being recession-proof or recession-resistant, he said.

The resulting rough times, not unlike the automotive industry downturn's effect on Michigan, are making things tougher in Nevada. Financial institutions have become more conservative in their lending practices and that has had an effect on some casino companies. He cited bankruptcy filings for the Tropicana, Lake Las Vegas and the Cosmopolitan project on the Strip and struggles being undertaken by Herbst Gaming.

Other gaming centers nationwide are facing similar struggles, Eadington said.

Dips in Atlantic City haven't reached post-9/11 levels, he said, but that market is facing additional adversity with new competition coming from Pennsylvania and smoking bans on top of the economic malaise.

Illinois riverboat gaming revenue is at its lowest level since mid-2003. Tribal casinos in Connecticut began dipping in January. The gaming market that seems to be weathering things best is Detroit, Eadington said, thanks largely to the October opening of the MGM Grand Detroit.

So how long will the downturn last? Eadington thinks it could be two years before things get better, but it could be longer.

He thinks it will take a long time for Americans to adjust to higher gasoline prices and more expensive airline tickets. In addition, inflation could be another hurdle to clear in the months ahead.

With the opening of CityCenter, Fontainebleau and Echelon still more than a year away, it will be awhile before Southern Nevada realizes any bump from those properties. But Eadington says there are some positives on the horizon.

Since the 1950s, people have counted Las Vegas out with every new economic challenge so the city has a history of defying the odds. In addition, November's election will put new leadership in office, which in the past has led to greater public optimism.

"I think there will be greater stability in 2009, but I think it's going to take a little longer for things to turn around," Eadington said.

The rest of the Casino Marketing Conference centered on strategies for using advertising, promotions, special events and other marketing techniques to attract visitors to casinos. The more than 500 people attending the event also heard from Dennis Conrad, president of Raving Consulting, who annually notes the best and worst marketing promotions.

Conrad never specifically names the companies that produce the worst promotions, but this year's roster includes a Nevada company that headlined $160 in discounts, but only delivered $80 in coupons and a Northwestern casino that, through a database error, printed the wrong name of his spouse in a mail solicitation.

Conrad gave kudos to Harrah's for sending thank-you notes to members of the company's Total Rewards loyalty program for visiting its properties, Palace Station for offering a wellness clinic at the casino, Paris Las Vegas for distributing coupons to its restaurants under the hotel room doors of guests and Golden Nugget for comping its best customers to Rich Little's performance at the property.

Richard N. Velotta covers tourism for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at 259-4061 or at rick.velotta@lasvegassun.com.