The Democratic registration trends. The toxic atmosphere for the GOP. And the mercurial nature of Bob Beers, Raggio's only vulnerable incumbent.

The Democrats have an untested quality in Allison Copening, a public relations woman. But if she can raise enough money and the workaholic Beers makes a few intemperate remarks, Raggio might be biting his nails come November. And that means the business community will be, too.

(The scramble to succeed Dina Titus as the Democratic leader also can't have escaped the business folks, who surely prefer some candidates - Mike Schneider - over others - Maggie Carlton - with Steven Horsford more of a middle of the road choice, but still not so palatable.)

The races to watch are open seats, the ones being vacated by Republican Valerie Weber and Democrats Susan Gerhardt and Rosemary Womack.

Weber's seat has transformed from a solid GOP district to close in registration to one with a 6 percent Democratic advantage. The Democrats have recruited Marilyn Dondero Loop, daughter of icon Thalia Dondero, and she will go up against Donna Toussaint, who has been an activist on the right-turn issue at McCarran International Airport. The Democrats have to be given an advantage here.

The Democrats have tabbed April Mastroluca, a child welfare advocate, to fight for Gerhardt's seat. She will face Sean Fellows, one of the GOP's prize 2008 prospects, who has been campaigning for months in the area. The district is slightly Democratic (less than 5 percent), so this one could be close.

In Womack's district, they have Allison Herr, whom they have highly touted. But the Republicans have found their own legacy recruit, Melissa Woodbury, daughter of the longtime county commissioner, Bruce Woodbury, who also will be on the ballot this year. The district is solidly Democratic (10 percent registration edge), but the Woodbury name is gold in this valley, so call this only a slight edge to the Democrats. They could lose this seat.

So the Democrats could easily get to 28 for Madame Speaker, or go down a seat or two. I bet the business community follows that matrix closely.

The chamber folks also will be keeping an eye on that Clark County Commission race between conservative Weber and Las Vegas Councilman Larry Brown - Weber's only real money will come from business types. And, yes, they have a passing interest in the Jon Porter-Titus race for Congress.

The importance of these venues is self-evident. And the results could have long-term ramifications for business. But they are almost secondary to those races without human beings in them, ones with the potential for much more of a deleterious impact.

Raggio can reign supreme, Buckley can come up short of 28, Weber can win and Porter can hang on. But if the business community doesn't get a handle on all of those ballot initiatives that will affect gaming this time but perhaps noncasino businesses next, this cycle could signal the beginning of the end of the happy commercial climate here.