With the holiday shopping season now in the rear view mirror, it's time to look at what is in store for the Las Vegas retail market in 2008 and beyond.
Experts say factors affecting the local retail picture are the continued growth of retail on the Strip, highlighted by the opening of another major resort with a retail element, the emergence of lifestyle markets in valley neighborhoods and the weak U.S. dollar.
It's not surprising that more retail options, especially off the Strip, are seen as a plus. What may seem a bit unusual to some, however, is the potentially positive effect of the decline of U.S. dollar's value compared to foreign cash.
John Restrepo of Restrepo Consulting said an unfavorable outlook for the dollar could easily bode well for the local economy. Restrepo's company and Colliers International compile a quarterly summary that outlines historical trends and the current state of the local retail market.
"A weak dollar is not necessarily a bad thing for the local economy," Restrepo said.
It's no secret that tourists fuel the Las Vegas economy and an increasing number of big spenders come from abroad. A weak U.S. dollar means foreign currency goes a lot further and increases the odds that visitors will be even more willing to spend in Las Vegas.
A good example was the recent opening of the region's first H&M, a Swedish-based clothier, at the Miracle Mile Shops at Planet Hollywood. Although grand openings of the clothier are always well attended, an informal survey of those waiting in line revealed that many were foreign visitors looking to take advantage of the relative strength of their native currency.
One Canadian couple indicated they were buying so much, they would have to use some of the money they saved on clothes to buy extra luggage to pack their purchases in.
The weak dollar also makes Las Vegas a more attractive option for domestic tourists. Since it now takes more American dollars to purchase goods and services abroad, people who might otherwise consider international travel will likely now find Las Vegas a more attractive option.
This is good news for the plethora of retailers at Strip resorts, including those at the newest retail venue, the Shoppes at the Palazzo.
The 450,000-square-foot retail component of the Venetian's sister property that is scheduled to open this month will include more than 60 upscale boutiques and is anchored by an 85,000-square-foot Barneys New York department store
In addition, future Strip resorts under construction or in the planning stages — such as CityCenter, Fontainebleau and Echelon — will have significant retail components, further proof that the marriage of gaming and retail promises to be a long and healthy one.
Off the Strip, the focus seems to be on so-called lifestyle centers that offer retail, dining, entertainment, office and in some cases, residential components.
Town Square on Las Vegas Boulevard South opened before Christmas and is the first of several lifestyle centers planned for the valley. Much of the local retail emphasis has been on the Strip in recent years, so it is encouraging to see so many projects geared to local shoppers.
Still, Restrepo said the market does not have unlimited potential.
"The developers who get shovels in the ground early will have a big advantage," he says, "as will those who target an underserved market."
The invisible presence in retailing, the online merchants, will continue to be a force to be reckoned with.
Bridget Fahrland, executive creative director at Fry Inc., says more retailers will adopt Web 2.0 technologies, including single-screen experiences such as "quick looks" and drag and drop and user-generated content features.
"The other trend I hope we see more of is true multichannel integration," Fahrland said. "Every year, there is acknowledgement that a retailer's stores, site and catalog must not only have a similar experience but also be technically integrated on the back end to enable things like a gift card that can be used online or off."
Fry designs, develops and manages sites for leading online retailers such as Ann Taylor, Eddie Bauer, Whirlpool, Godiva Chocolatier and Crate & Barrel.
By the numbers, the retail picture in Las Vegas has consistently been very good and appears as if it will remain that way.
The third quarter 2007 retail summary released by Colliers International and Restrepo Consulting showed almost 2 million square feet of retail under construction in the valley. The anchored retail vacancy rate was an incredibly low 2.9 percent in the quarter.
Absorption outpaced completion in the valley, as there was 1.1 feet of demand for every foot of supply delivered to the market in the quarter.
Put simply, what has been built fills with retailers, and as long as retailers continue to lease space developers will continue to build.
Merchants, especially large national retailers, rely heavily on population benchmarks to determine the viability of entry or expansion into a market.
When the population in the valley topped 1 million, for example, many discovered that there was untapped retail potential beyond the Strip.
"Now that we've exceeded 2 million (in population), niche boutique retailers are taking notice as well," Restrepo said.
As a result, both Strip retailers and the burgeoning lifestyle centers are targeting these businesses.
Every major project that has opened recently or that is on the drawing board boasts of first-to-the-market boutique retailers and restaurants.
The big-box retailer and the traditional department store are also continuing to move into the market, albeit not as aggressively.
Arroyo Market Square at Interstate 215 and Rainbow Boulevard is anchored by a recently competed 45,000-square-foot Best Buy, and Kohl's opened an 88,000-square-foot store in North Las Vegas last year.
Even Town Square has incorporated the adjacent Fry's Electronic Store into its project to provide a traditional big-box element.
The areas most likely to experience retail growth continue to be North Las Vegas, which has traditionally been underserved and the burgeoning southwest valley.
Even downtown Las Vegas might finally start to see some significant retail growth. With Union Park moving forward on the 61 acres and high-profile developers such as CIM and Forest City planning major redevelopment projects, the long-awaited downtown renaissance could finally occur.
Restrepo cautions that the credit crunch affecting the residential market could also put some clouds on the horizon, to a much lesser extent, in the retail industry. The result could be a delay or a scaling back of some projects currently in the planning or construction stages.
Still, with 3.6 million square feet of retail either being built or planned to begin construction in the next year, even with a few potential hiccups, it seems the retail market in the valley is poised for significant and continued growth.
Mark Hansel covers retail and real estate for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at 259-4069 or at hansel@lasvegassun.com.