The supply of single-family homes in Las Vegas and slowing job growth are preventing apartment owners from raising rents as much as they did a year ago, but that could change if the housing market improves in late 2008 as one firm is predicting.
The annual rent growth for apartments slowed to 2.6 percent in the third quarter, down from 5.7 percent a year ago, according to the latest report on the apartment market issued by Applied Analysis.
The average asking rent was $883 in the third quarter, up from $878 in the second quarter. The average rent in the third quarter of 2006 was $861, the firm reported.
The reason for the slowdown in rent growth was increased vacancies. The occupancy rate dropped to 93.5 percent in the third quarter, down from 95.8 percent in the third quarter of 2006, Applied Analysis reported.
But the firm reported the market could change over the next 12 to 36 months as megaresorts start staffing up in advance of their openings. In addition, the firm reports the housing market should begin to improve by the third quarter of 2008, which will help the apartment market.
"We are looking for the housing market by the third quarter of 2008 to begin to work out of the mess as opposed to getting in the mess deeper," said Jeremy Aguero, a principal with Applied Analysis. "Largely by that time we should start picking up the employment growth and see the benefit of less residential building permits working through the system."
Aguero said the record level of existing-home inventory would begin to whittle down by then. As for prices, he said new-home prices, which have fallen 15 to 22 percent from their peak, don't have much farther to go unless there is a broader correction to the market.
"It will be a question of pricing mix and unit size and not bringing in the same for less money," Aguero said.
As for the existing home market, which has fallen by 8 percent, Aguero said he expects the correction to wind up between 12 to 16 percent.
Applied Analysis tracks the housing market for the Nevada Association of Realtors.
Southern Nevada Index of Economic Indicators: The Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV reported that the Las Vegas economy performed "at less than a stellar rate" in August. Its Southern Nevada Leading Index fell 0.64 percent, but the report said the weakness in the housing industry has "yet to take the Las Vegas economy down" and the outlook over the next six months is for more of the same — a lukewarm performance, said Keith Schwer, the center's director.
The Clark County Construction Index, which dropped sharply in the last half of 2006, continues to move sideways, Schwer said.
"Housing has taken a bite out of the robust expansion of the past fewer years," he said. Still, construction employment remains steady, down 1,700 jobs from last year and down 100 jobs from July, he added. "These are relatively small percentage changes in total construction employment, a reflection of the strong construction cycle currently ongoing along the Strip."
With the completion of some large projects in 2009, job growth will likely be strong enough to soak up excessive housing supply, he said.
Las Vegas real estate trends: The Las Vegas chapter of the Urban Land Institute will hold a conference Tuesday on emerging trends in Las Vegas real estate, from 8 a.m. until 10 a.m. at the Rio, 3700 W. Flamingo Road.
The national organization publishes a report on emerging trends. That information will be presented along with a panel on Las Vegas trends.
The panelists include Eric Schwartz, managing director of Deutsche Bank; Richard Dix, Mountain West Area President of Pulte Homes; Larry Harmsen, managing director of North American capital deployment for ProLogis; Kevork Zoryan, executive director of Morgan Stanley; John Restrepo, president of Restrepo Consulting Group; and Tom Roberts, vice president of development with Station Casinos.
For more information, call 798-5156.
In other news:
: Las Vegas civil attorney Glen Lerner sold his 7,600 square-foot home on Summit Canyon Drive for $4.9 million. The buyers were the Troy and Julie Nelson Living Trust.
: Alan Beaudette, future chairman of the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties, will discuss the 2008 goals of the national organization at the local chapter's breakfast meeting on Nov. 15. The meeting runs from 7 a.m. until 8:30 a.m. at the Orleans.
: Forbes.com ranked Las Vegas No. 2 in the nation when it comes to cities with the best job growth. Las Vegas ranks behind Cape Coral, Fla. In Las Vegas, the most popular jobs and their average local salary were elementary school teachers, $29,318; registered nurses, $51,869; wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives, $49,474.
: Bob and Molly Hamrick of Coldwell Banker Premier Realty will receive the Nevada Childhood Cancer Foundation's Community Angel award for their dedication to the charity. The 14th annual Profiles of Courage Gala will be held Nov. 17 at the Mirage. The Hamricks and their sales associates and staff have donated time and money to the foundation. That includes assisting with fundraisers and giving aid to families in need.
: More than 600 backpacks plus hundreds of pencils, crayons, folders, rulers and other school supplies were donated to benefit the children of Child Haven as part of a summer-long drive by Toll Brothers. Child Haven is a Clark County-run shelter for abused, neglected or abandoned children.
: Gov. Jim Gibbons announced the launch of a Web site to assist Nevada homeowners who may be facing foreclosure. It is a comprehensive resource designed to help borrowers make informed decision about mortgage payments. It grew out of a summit the governor held with lenders. It is www.foreclosure.nv.gov.
Brian Wargo covers real estate and development for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4011 or by e-mail at wargo@lasvegassun.com.