No, he's not saying home prices will rapidly appreciate as they did that year and in 2005.

Smith says it won't be long before prices return to the levels of late 2004 when it comes to the existing home market.

In September, Smith, president of Home Builders Research, which tracks the Las Vegas housing market, pegs the median price for single-family homes at $262,377, a year-to-year decline of $22,623 or 8 percent. That's roughly the same price as in January 2005.

By the first quarter of 2008, Smith says he wouldn't be surprised if the median resale price fell another $10,000 to $20,000. That would put the year-to-year drop between 13 percent and 15 percent, Smith says.

One impetus for the decline, Smith says, is when banks start to liquidate their growing inventory of foreclosed-upon homes. If they base prices on the market demand instead of what the notes are, that will lower prices even further, he says.

Resales are down nearly 39 percent during 2007, and Smith says that while that market searches for its bottom there may be some encouraging signs when it comes to lending.

One mortgage broker reported finding a 6 percent 30-year fixed rate mortgage and a 5.75 percent for a 5/1 adjustable-rate-mortgage with a 1 percent loan origination fee, Smith says.

If the bond market improves some more in the coming weeks, 30-year rates could fall below 6 percent, he says.

"That would be a big boost to the industry," Smith says. "It could be a big factor during the fourth quarter, normally a slow time of year. It would demonstrate to consumers that things are improving for them. Not only are good pricing deals showing up just about everywhere, but now mortgage rates are going in the right direction."

As for the new-home market, Smith says the median price in September was $304,790, which he says is a year-to-year reduction of $27,852, or 8.4 percent. He says he expects the median price to fall the rest of the year.

Pulte, Del Webb and Lennar slashed their prices 15 percent to 20 percent in some communities for homes that will close escrow by the end of the year, Smith says. Those price cuts are worth between $50,000 and $200,000. Pulte even mailed fliers for $55,000 off contracts, and Lennar had discounts of up to $200,000, Smith says.

With 620 new permits taken out by builders in September, Smith says the inventory of new homes remains at about one to two months. Since January 2006, there were 6,422 new-home closings than permits issued. In 2007, there have been 148 sales of new homes than builders have obtained permits.

"The bottom line is that builders have been progressively getting rid of any excess new-home inventory," Smith says. "It is important to realize that any inventory that exists is not from overbuilding — it is from cancellations of sales contracts."

Smith says the September cancellation rate was 39 percent in September, down from more than 50 percent in August.

Forbes magazine's latest take on Las Vegas housing: Forbes reported that it's "reasonable" to expect a 9.1 percent median home-sale price decrease through 2008 in Las Vegas in citing an analysis of Moody's Economy.com.

"Las Vegas' problems are largely the result of speculative buying and risky loans," the report said. "It won't help that much of the city's job growth of the past three years was housing-industry related; those jobs are now disappearing."

The magazine, however, pointed out a bright spot for Las Vegas' housing market. From the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008, it reported that it expects Las Vegas' sales are and turnover to be the second best in the country.

Moody's came to its conclusion by models based on the drivers of supply and demand. Those indicators in one model are the state of the local economy, job growth, new construction contracts, unsold housing inventory and housing affordability. Another model includes local credit markets and foreclosure and delinquency projections.

The magazine said an 8 percent to 9 percent increase can cause chaos.

Markets like Las Vegas had impressive price growth during the boom, which spurred construction, it said. When the housing market slumped, that hurt the market by having large amounts of unsold inventory, which in turn depressed prices, Forbes said. When construction stopped, so did the housing-related growth.

"It's very clear that in Florida, California and Nevada, many of the jobs were housing-related," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys.

Even though home sales are low by recent Las Vegas standards, Moody's said there is a silver lining because it has the second-fastest sales rate in the country. That's a sign sellers are slashing prices to move inventory.

SR Construction is starting construction on the MacFarlane medical office building on the northwest corner of Warm Springs and Gagnier roads, adjacent to the new St. Rose Dominican Hospital-San Martin Campus. The 42,000-square-foot, three-story steel building is expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2008. The project is expected to cost $6.3 million.

Southwestern Pavers will acquire Regal Hardscapes, effective Nov. 1, doubling the company's size and making it one of Las Vegas' largest paving stone installers. Regal has spent the last several months shopping for a buyer to acquire the company. Financial details were not announced.