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Venetian Macau paces enclave's transformation
 
By Richard Velotta / Staff Writer

A major transition is under way in Macau, and last month's opening of the new Venetian resort in the Chinese enclave is likely to be recognized as the turning point.

When the giant resort opened its doors, it signaled the beginning of a change from Macau's status as a day-trip destination reliant on big-betting baccarat players.

Instead, Macau is becoming a more diverse destination resort that could someday join Las Vegas as a place that makes more money from an array of hotel rooms, retail, dining and entertainment than from its casinos.

"With the opening of the Venetian Macau, the upcoming Wynn (Macau) expansion and the opening of the MGM (Macau), the market is morphing in the direction of nongaming," said Deutsche Bank Securities gaming analyst Bill Lerner.

Lerner, who recently returned from his second Macau trip in two months, said he expects nongaming amenities to supply more than 20 percent of the revenue generated at Macau resorts in the next five years.

It's no surprise that Las Vegas companies are leading that charge, since more than 60 percent of revenue generated in Southern Nevada's top resorts comes from sources outside of the casino.

What's holding Macau back now is a lack of transportation infrastructure, but the central government in Beijing and private enterprise have recognized that and are funneling money into projects that will make it easier for Chinese tourists to make their way to Macau.

"Right now, there is a significant amount of supply in the pipeline," Lerner said.

The challenge is channeling the demand from the wealthy provinces within a day's drive of Macau to the resorts.

Nowhere is the sharp rise in supply more evident than at the 3,000-suite Venetian Macau, where the casino has 850 table games.

The largest Las Vegas casinos have between 100 and 150 tables.

The effort to add non-gaming amenities stands out at the Venetian property, where there is 1 million square feet of convention space — more than the largest convention centers in Hong Kong.

When completely open, Macau's Venetian Canal Shoppes will have more than three times the retail offered at its counterpart on Las Vegas Boulevard.

The easing of visa restrictions is enabling more of the millions of residents of Guandong Province to travel to Macau.

"But there's no easy way in," Lerner said.

To accommodate the growing market, the government has approved the construction of 23 superhighways as well as light-rail lines, long-rail train lines and improvements to airports that would enable more airlift.

A network of bridges and tunnels in the Macau area has been proposed and several companies, including Venetian owner Las Vegas Sands Corp., are boosting ferry and bus capacity.

A new ferry terminal is expected to be operational later this year or early next year that would lead to boat transportation from Hong Kong directly to Taipa Island, where the Venetian resides.

Lerner said one of the long-considered dream transportation projects, the construction of a bridge connecting Macau with Hong Kong at Lantau, is picking up steam and may be built within 10 years.

Buses operated by Wynn Macau and the Venetian routinely pick up travelers to Macau who arrive at the Lotus Bridge, which connects Taipa to the mainland, and Macau's Gongbei gate, the primary port of entry from mainland China.

Thousands of tourists arriving over the Lotus Bridge and picked up by shuttle buses will drive right past the newest non-gaming amenity coming under the control of a Las Vegas company “ a golf course acquired by Harrah's Entertainment Inc.

Under existing law, Harrah's is unable to get a gaming concession in Macau. It's not impossible for that to change — over the years, the rules have changed enabling subconcessions that eventually allowed MGM Mirage to get into the market with partner Pansy Ho.

With a toe-hold in the non-gaming market, it's at least a start for Harrah's in Asia.

Harrah's was unsuccessful in its bid to win a concession in Singapore, with the first casino there being built by Las Vegas Sands.

MGM Grand will open its doors in Macau late in the fourth quarter.

The company's property is located next door to Wynn Macau on the city's peninsula.

Gaming analysts recently have raised their stock price targets and changed their outlooks on Las Vegas companies operating in Macau.

Lerner believes the Venetian's opening has grown the market, not cannibalized business from other properties.

"We believe that Wynn Macau has experienced no diminution to date, following the opening of the Venetian," Lerner said in a note to investors. "In fact, notwithstanding hold, Wynn may have experienced volume acceleration."

Lerner added that Stanley Ho, the longtime holder of a monopoly on casino gambling in Macau, may have lost some business at his Grand Lisboa property, located across the street from Wynn.

Gaming analyst Steven Wieczynski of Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price on Las Vegas Sands stock to $145 a share after upgrading the stock in the second quarter.

"We upgraded LVS shares back in early May as we believed the shares would rally throughout the summer in anticipation of the Venetian Macau opening," Wieczysnski said in a note to investors. "Share of LVS are up over 64 percent since July 1 vs. the 1.8 percent S&P 500 decline."

Wieczynski acknowledged that there's more going on with Las Vegas Sands than just its outlook in Macau. The company will open its Palazzo resort on the Las Vegas Strip in December and the company is exploring ventures in Japan overseas and Massachusetts domestically. The company earlier this week said it had submitted a proposal to build a resort in Kansas.

There's no question that stock prices have soared for the companies that operate in Macau with the opening of the Venetian as a catalyst.

Las Vegas Sands' stock price in mid-July was at $81.40 a share; earlier this week, it was near $140. Wynn Resorts was at $97.97 in mid-July; this week, it hit $155 a share.

Not every analyst is convinced that growth in Macau is a sure thing.

A recent report, "Macau's Big Gamble," by Alan MacCharles, director of Deloitte China, views Macau's transition as essentially a shift from focusing on high-rolling players to the mass market.

The Deloitte report questions whether Chinese tourists will arrive in numbers sufficient enough to justify the scale of investment.

"What kind of experiences will attract mass market visitors and what will persuade them to stay longer?" the report asks. "Will they respond in a similar way to Las Vegas customers, or are cultural differences fundamentally important?"

Local companies are betting big on the former.

Richard N. Velotta covers tourism for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4061 or by e-mail at velotta@lasvegassun.com.

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