That may be changing after the release of a report showing the dwindling supply of private and public land for residential development and Gov. Jim Gibbons, when speaking to members of the housing industry, called on Congress to extend the disposal boundary of federal lands subject to be auctioned.

The issue will get another boost when the Lied Institute For Real Estate Studies at UNLV releases a white paper about the dwindling supply of land zoned for industrial use.

Southern Nevada residents will have to decide whether they want to disturb more of the desert landscape to build more homes and facilitate growth bolstered by gaming and tourism and companies that locate in Las Vegas.

The debate pitting environmentalists against the business community and local governments who want to be able to expand their boundaries won't be pleasant, but it's time to get the discussion going over whether the boundaries should be extended.

Henderson is already itching to extend its border farther south to Jean to ensure its long-term growth. But the Las Vegas office of the Bureau of Land Management has shot down that request for tens of thousands of acres because the land is outside of the disposal area.

Boulder City was also shot down on its request to annex thousands of acres of federal land outside of the disposal boundary, but that no-growth city wants to annex it to keep it out of the hands of developers. That will be subject to another debate over whether the city has the right to stifle development outside of its existing borders.

Las Vegas and North Las Vegas are currently locked in a tussle with environmentalists who want to preserve more than 13,000 acres in the Upper Las Vegas Wash to protect rare plants and prehistoric fossils. The local governments are willing to preserve about 5,000 acres and allow the rest to be developed within the disposal boundary.

The report prepared by RGR Group, real estate consultants, showed there is about 36,000 acres of private and public land available for residential development and that the supply should be exhausted in 6 1/2 years at the current rate of use.

Of the 331,000 acres in the disposal area, 224,000 is spoken for with 130,000 developed and the rest used as right-of-way or is government owned or an Indian reservation.

That leaves 106,000 acres available for development with 63,000 in private hands and 43,000 controlled by the federal government.

Without any expansion of the disposal boundary, that's likely going to mean more leapfrog development in Pahrump, Mesquite, Coyote Springs and Northern Arizona.

Proponents of the expansion say it's needed because increasing the supply of land will hold down prices and make homes more affordable. Those in the industrial sector say land zoned for that purpose is needed or goods will cost more because they will have to be shipped in from neighboring states where land is cheaper.

Environmentalists argue it makes no sense to put affordable housing on the outskirts when people would have to travel to their jobs. They are pushing for a greater focus on in-fill development and said the region will just have to adjust if growth is limited.

It's time for the debate to begin and maybe a start would be to put an advisory measure on the November 2008 presidential election ballot asking the public if the boundaries should be extended.

Stock market and real estate: In the category of "that didn't take long," Las Vegas housing analyst and consultant Steve Bottfeld said he fielded calls from clients wanting to know about the impact of last's week one-day drop in the Dow of 416 points. They wanted to know that if the stock market loses steam and people lose even more money, will they look to real estate for investments and further heat up that sector, Bottfeld said.

Bottfeld said he told them if the market fell another 300 to 400 points, more people would look to real estate and speed up its recovery. Bottfeld said he told the callers, however, he doesn't expect that to happen.

National analyst: In a follow-up interview, Real estate consultant and analyst John Burns, who spoke at the Southern Nevada Housing Day, said he wouldn't be surprised if the price of existing homes fell a combined 10 percent in 2007 and 2008. Most of the decrease will likely occur in 2007 because of the large inventory of existing homes on the market, he said.

At the housing conference, Burns said he expects the new-home market to stabilize, in essence beginning its recovery by the end of 2007 because of the limited inventory builders have. Such a recovery, however, doesn't mean the market will return to the building frenzy of recent years, he said.

Burns said the national housing market has never turned as quickly as it has in its current cycle but said it should have slowed in 2002. It didn't because the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to use the housing market as a tool to boost the economy. As the prices soared, investors came into the market,

In addition to the investors, the market dipped into the rental pool for qualified home buyers and added about two million more homeowners than the long-term trends would indicate, Burns said

In 2005, there were 25 percent more transactions than there should have been and there are 2.3 million more vacant units today than there were four years ago, which is at least 1 million more than should have been created based on historical trends, Burns said.

There are still problems to overcome, especially with affordability, Burns said. The higher cost of money also hurts. A consumer earning $45,000 who could qualify for a $300,000 loan in March 2004 can only qualify for a $235,000 loan today, a decline of 21 percent.

Dennis Smith projections: In his latest newsletter about the slowdown in the housing market, analyst Dennis Smith cautions those who believe the market is in recovery “ something Bottfeld has been saying.

Smith reported that the 2,052 new home sales in January, which includes high-rise and traditional single-family homes, was the lowest January total since 2003. When omitting mid-rise and high-rise sales, there were 1,610 new-home sales in January.

On the new-home permit front, the 1,158 permits issued in January was the lowest January since 1993, Smith said.

"This is a great example of why you should not get too excited about a one-month change in the numbers," Smith said. "Last month's (December's) spike might appear to some as a signal of a changing market. However, I have been saying for months that I felt there would be a gradual change that might take most of the year to ascertain depth of consumer demand. I am still holding onto this belief, and suggest we should not be ready to declare a definite market upswing until three or four months of stronger consistent monthly permit statistics are established."

Smith added that it wouldn't be prudent to declare that the local housing cycle has reversed itself because of a few months of strong closing numbers of mid-rise and high-rise units.

"Most of them were sold roughly two years ago," Smith said. "It tells us nothing about the current sales velocities."

When it comes to existing home resales, Smith said the 2,423 transactions in January made for the lowest January since 2001. It was a year-to-year decrease of nearly 26 percent from January 2006.

Smith said the report from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors showing that listings had gone up bears out his suggestion that the reduction in inventory in November and December was a seasonable trend. Even though the inventory of listings has decreased and sales have decreased, the price of new listings rose 4.2 percent from December “ something Smith suggested was a surprise.

The median price of all recorded new-home sales in January was $334,945, an increase of more than $31,000 or 10 percent over January 2006, Smith said. But Smith said that doesn't paint a true picture because when you omit the 442 sales of mid-rise and high-rise units in January, the median new-home price fell more than $8,000 or 2.4 percent from January 2006.

The median price of resales was $280,000 in January, a year-to-year decrease of $5,000 or 1.8 percent, Smith said.

In his projections, Smith expects the sale of single-family homes will mirror what took place in 2006 with 29,000, up from 29,493 in 2006. When high rises and mid rises are added in, sales will increase from 36,156 to 37,000.

In 2008, Smith said the sales of single-family homes will reach 30,500, which is about 1,000 greater than 2006 -- a rebound but a very small one.

As for new home permits for traditional housing, Smith said he projects there will be 26,500 in 2007, up from 23,219 in 2006. The number should jump to 28,500 in 2008, he said.

For existing homes, Smith said resales should reach 45,000 in 2007, up from 41,892 in 2006. It will reach 50,000 in 2008, which is an improvement but down from more than 58,000 in 2005.