That depends on which analyst you're getting your information from.

The two most-quoted housing analysts in the Las Vegas Valley have different views on what's happening.

Steve Bottfeld, executive vice president of Marketing Solutions, expresses bubbly optimism in saying that October statistics suggest that the Las Vegas housing market is at or near the bottom of its "negative cycle," in which sales have been slow and inventory has been at record levels.

He argues that Las Vegans can be thankful that the housing market defies the laws of gravity and economics.

Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research, said the October numbers indicate a continuation of the "nasty cycle" that has defined the housing industry for about a year. Smith had said he expected the bottom of the housing cycle would hit by the fourth quarter of this year but now says it looks like the disappointing sales will continue through the holidays.

That doesn't go a long way toward giving people a clear picture of the housing market. The breakdown:

Steve Bottfeld

Housing prices fell across most of the country in October, but they rose in Las Vegas, Bottfeld said in citing numbers crunched by SalesTraq's Larry Murphy. New-home prices, led by high-rise buildings, jumped to $330,000, a nearly 12 percent gain over October 2005 and up $7,000 over September.

Existing home prices, even though sales are lackluster, went up $2,500 over September. The price is 2.7 percent higher over October 2005, he said.

"While the rest of the country is experiencing falling prices, Las Vegas maintains upward pricing momentum," Bottfeld said. "That's the sign of a strong market."

Even though sales are down from the highs of 2004 and 2005, new-home sales are 3.3 percent from the record levels of last year, Bottfeld said. Existing homes sales, meanwhile, are off nearly 23 percent.

Another hopeful sign is that inventory of homes on the Multiple Listing Service is remaining stable, Bottfeld maintains. The available listings, which were at 21,386 in October, have remained fairly steady since May.

Bottfeld also pointed to the number of existing home sales between September and October holding steady at about the same at just over 3,000. Since 2003, there had always been a large drop in sales between the two months, he said.

October is not the end of the buyer's market but the latest data points to it being much closer to the end of that than many believe, Bottfeld said.

While it hasn't been a happy year in the real estate industry, people should smile because it looks like things are going to change in the next six months, Bottfeld said.

Dennis Smith

Smith makes no mention of smiling in his prognosis.

Just looking at the number of sales per subdivision paints a picture of what's happening, he said. That number dropped to 0.6 and 0.7 in the first two weeks of November — a level of demand that hasn't been seen for 10 years.

The numbers can return to 1.5 to 2 sales a week, but supply and demand needs to be more balanced, Smith said. That's going to happen but it will take time, he said.

There will be more people looking to buy a new home after the holidays, but it won't be a return to a boom, a word Smith said should be removed from the Las Vegas housing vocabulary for now. He said sales of 1 to 1.5 homes per subdivision per week means a stronger market in 2008. It will be tough to go higher because two new subdivisions are opening in 2007 — Inspirada in Henderson and Providence in the northwest.

One of the deterrents is the continuation of the soft resale home market, he said. Without the equity from selling their home, consumers can't buy a bigger and pricier home, he said.

"A strong resale segment is the only way we can reclaim our new-home move-up market segment," Smith said. "The vitality of the home builders depends on a health resale market."

Resale closings have dropped for three consecutive months and are down 27 percent for the year, Smith said. No analysts expected that resales might be below 40,000 for the year, and it could be 2009 before Las Vegas reaches its 2004 level of more than 64,000 transactions, he said.

Las Vegas, Clark County, Henderson and North Las Vegas reported 864 new home permits in October — the lowest monthly total since January 1993, said Smith who added he never thought the number would ever go below 1,000 again.

Through October, there have been 19,838 permits, which is a year-to-date decrease of 25 percent.

Speaking of the housing market, the arrival of the holidays doesn't mean that home buying takes a holiday, said Coldwell Banker President Bob Hamrick.

In the last six years, the average ratio between residential listings taken and listings sold is 61 percent, Hamrick said. But in the months of November and December, the average is 80 percent, which means there is a 19 percent greater chance of selling a home during the holidays than other times of the year.

Over that span, 15 percent more homes sold in November and December than in January and February, he said.