Nov. 17 - 23, 2006

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Real Estate and Development
More residents are calling condominiums home
By Brian Wargo / Staff Writer

Living in a town home or a condo is becoming a more popular choice for Las Vegas Valley residents.

The Clark County Department of Comprehensive Planning released estimates that show that of the nearly 95,000 jump in population between July 2005 and July 2006, some 23,000 more people or nearly 25 percent chose to live in a condo or town home.

Some 118,086 people live in condos, up 10 percent from 2005. Townhome living rose 20 percent to 65,676.

"It is an indicator of what has happened in this market over the last couple of years," said Ken Perlman, vice president of Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors, which tracks housing trends. "It shows the evolution of the Las Vegas marketplace."

Builders have plenty of townhome and condo projects in the pipeline that more Las Vegas residents want because of the amenities, maintenance-free lifestyle and location in urban settings in many cases, Perlman said.

"People want great products in good locations closer to everything," Perlman said. "That's indicative of the United States and the Southwest as a whole. There is a renaissance back toward the urban lifestyle and back to shorter commutes."

Higher land costs dictate higher densities, Perlman said. The one concern is that land prices, although softening now, will rise to where units become less affordable. More and more builders will construct two-story and three-story buildings to attract entry-level buyers, he said.

Despite those gains, the single-family lifestyle dominates the market with 65 percent of the population living in homes. That population base grew by 7 percent between 2005 and 2006 to 1.2 million.

Apartments are the second most popular living arrangement with 18 percent of the population or 332,719. More than 53,400 people live in mobile homes.

The Las Vegas Valley's population grew 5.4 percent to 1.84 million, according to the population estimates. Overall, Clark County grew by 5.3 percent to 1.91 million.

The highest percentage gain in that growth occurred in North Las Vegas, where the city is trying to parlay its population gain into attracting more retailers.

North Las Vegas grew by 11 percent and exceeds 202,000 people, according to the latest estimate. The city added 20,000 people between July 2005 and 2006.

Las Vegas grew by more than 16,000 people to more than 591,000. Henderson grew by more than 12,000 people to more than 256,000.

Unincorporated areas of the valley grew by more than 46,000 to more than 797,000 people. Enterprise led the way, growing 26 percent to 121,502. That was followed by a 23 percent gain in Whitney to 33,812. Summerlin South grew 8 percent to 22,129; Spring Valley 5 percent to 175,581 and Sunrise Manor 3.8 percent to 195,727.

Any employees of homebuilders or their suppliers couldn't have left a national housing conference earlier this month in Las Vegas with a good feeling of where the national market was headed, even though stocks are cheap, executives didn't make it sound like it was a good time to gobble them up.

Even the jokes about the homebuilding industry dealt with the slowdown that is gripping the nation.

Bruce Karatz, the chairman and chief executive officer of KB Home, who chaired the builder conference at Mandalay Bay, described how the mood among homebuilder executives was cautious and everyone was cutting back their operations, joking that he and others were staying at the Motel 6.

Builders can't mope around and continue to expect the double-digit margins they have seen in the last decade but be content to accept the way the industry had been previously.

"There have been difficult times before, and we will make it through this time as well," Karatz said. Karatz, however, didn't make it past last week at KB Home (see story on page 20).

Some reports suggested the national building business was making a comeback when September numbers showed housing starts up 6 percent and sales up 5 percent, but executives said those numbers don't take into account cancellations, which is a growing problem in the industry, reaching 40 percent in some cases. Some builders attribute the problem in part to people unable to sell their existing homes.

"In the last 30, 60 to 90 days, the cancellations among the homebuilders is by far the highest percentage in the last 20 years at least," said Bob Schottenstein, the chairman and chief executive officer of Ohio-based MI Homes.

Ken Newman, the president of Illinois-based Newman Homes, said talk in recent years about a housing bubble bursting took on a life of its own this year when there was a slowdown in sales. Press coverage of it took consumers out of the marketplace the last two quarters, he said.

Former CNN reporter Gene Randall, who moderated one panel discussion at the housing conference, asked those in the building industry if they thought it has hit bottom yet. No one raised their hands. Schottenstein said he didn't agree with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan who said that the housing market has stabilized.

Schottenstein said Greenspan isn't far removed from his position and probably doesn't want people to panic. The slowdown should last for the remainder of this year and through 2007 and 2008, he said.

"It took a long time to get in this situation, and it will take a long time to get out," said Schottenstein, who urged builders to lower their expectations. "Historically, this industry has not had double-digit operating margins, but it has in the last five to seven years. We are not going to be close to that when we come out of this. It will not return to those double-digit levels for a long time."

Newman said builders are making the market worse with price discounts and overbuilding. The demand curve is down 20 to 30 percent and it could stay down for the next four to five years, he said. He pointed at incentives and some builders continuing to add spec homes even though they see what's happening.

"When you see a house one day, and it is $20,000 off in two weeks and later it is $30,000 to $40,000, we are forcing the consumers to cancel contacts by our decision making," Newman said.

Karatz joked that he believes the builder giveaways will settle down because "we are not going to give away homes.

As for Wall Street, Schottenstein said public builders need to focus on running their business and focus on issues they can control. Karatz added that investors have lowered their expectations and the housing stocks are approaching book value.

"You just need to run your business as best as you can, knowing that being in business means to make money," Karatz said.

Not everyone thought the builders were making the right moves in cutting back on their land acquisitions. One person representing land developers and owners questioned why builders were bowing to Wall Street by dropping options and not pursuing land as aggressively as they were.

"Just because we walk away doesn't mean we have a short-term outlook," Karatz said. "We base it on where we see things going. We would rather have that money for future acquisitions."

Schottenstein said it makes good business sense to no longer pursue such purchases because builders are eyeing a supply of three to five years. When the market slows as it is, that timetables stretches to seven to 10 years. If builders purchase land with the intent of not building on it for a decade, they will be out of business by then, he said.

"We want to be standing," Schottenstein said. "We have to be smart. This is not a good time to be in the residential land development business. It is not a good time to be in the homebuilding business, but you can't do both."

Newman said he wouldn't be surprised if the slowdown led to a decrease in the size of the homebuilder industry by 20 percent.

Karatz said there is no "silver bullet" to resolve the problem but he said people can only dream. That dream scenario would have builders drastically cut their production and hold prices, Karatz said.

"If that were to happen, and maybe if that were to last two to three months, it would stabilize things," Karatz said. "The market sentiments would begin to rise with the moderation of market conditions. All of that is a pipe dream."

Brian Wargo covers real estate and development for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4011 or by e-mail at wargo@lasvegassun.com.

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