DEER VALLEY, Utah — For years, airport, airline and aviation leaders attending the Boyd Group Aviation Forecast Conference left the meeting with grim faces.
What was the world going to throw at them next after economic downturns, 9/11, SARS and skyrocketing fuel prices?
But for once, the nearly 200 people attending the conference, this year conducted within a giant slalom run of the site of the 2002 Winter Olympic Games had something to smile about.
Barring some unforeseen calamity, the airline industry — whose trends often portend the success of tourism — appears headed for clear skies and a smooth ride.
Mike Boyd, an aviation consultant who never shies from telling it like it is and poking holes in conventional wisdom, was jubilant in telling convention attendees that the future is bright for lots of airlines, not just Southwest.
Boyd cited several reasons for optimism:
Two key players in the industry are on the verge of emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and both of them, after renegotiating contracts with labor, suppliers and vendors, are expected to be strong competitors, especially on international routes.
Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines has been bolstering its operation at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and Minneapolis-based Northwest Airlines will continue to focus on its midwestern strongholds and compete rigorously in the Asian market, where travel to and from China is expected to strengthen.
While Delta and Northwest aren't huge players in the Las Vegas market, they're important because of their capability of transporting international visitors.
The industry is on the verge of a major technological advancement. When Boeing introduces its 787 Dreamliner jet in 2008, it is expected to bring flying to a new level. The biggest change in the 787 will be the introduction of a primarily composite fuselage that will make the cabin more comfortable. Boeing officials say other technological advancements will make the 787 one of the most passenger-friendly jets in the sky.
Airbus, meanwhile, is taking a different approach. That manufacturer will be a few years behind Boeing's 787 launch and is putting its money on the A350 and A380 series of planes. Both are jumbo jets; the A380 is the double-decked plane capable of flying more than 500 passengers at a time.
Airbus' efforts to increase passenger volume on flights is directed at reducing traffic on flights between big-city markets. Don't expect too many A380s making their way to Las Vegas — while McCarran can accommodate them, they'd cause some major traffic headaches because their wingspans are too wide for other planes to pass.
The A350, meanwhile, is expected to meet demand not met by the 787.
Fuel prices have fallen to levels at which most airlines can make a profit. In early October, fuel was hovering around $62 a barrel, considerably less than the midsummer price of $80. Some analysts are guessing that the price will level off at $60, while some are saying it will drop to $50 or even $40.
The Chinese are coming. While Nevada tourism leaders have said for some time that they're going to market to Chinese tourists, the rest of the nation can also expect an influx of Chinese visitors. Boyd said Chinese investment will be a driver for new U.S. Domestic traffic. In addition, North America will be a key transit sport for a burgeoning China-Latin American market. That factor could play against Las Vegas getting the nonstop flights from China it covets as airlines like United, Northwest, American and Continental make the case to federal officials for nonstop flights to their hubs. Northwest, for example, is hoping to operate a nonstop flight between Shanghai and Detroit to support growing automotive industry relationships.
Airlines have hit the right capacity balance to maintain profitability. Flights are running at about 80 percent full, generally a good level for making money. Some low-cost airlines have deferred some of their aircraft orders to maintain a balance of keeping flights reasonably full. AirTran is not taking some of the Boeing 737s while JetBlue has held back deliveries on some A320s.
Because demand is still strong, higher loads could encourage some carriers to raise ticket prices. That's not something consumers want to hear, but some airlines are well aware that they were charging far less than it cost to fly the plane.
But consumers shouldn't have too much to worry about: With healthy competition, there are bound to be more fare wars in the future, especially since airlines are notorious for matching the fares of their competitors.
Of course, not everything can be perfect.
While airlines and airports are sporting more smiles these days, there are some issues ahead.
One of the biggest is that the nation's air traffic control system is in need of an overhaul. With a congressional battle ahead on the reauthorization of the Federal Aviation Administration, the Air Transport Association, which represents 18 U.S.-based commercial passenger and cargo air carriers, is lobbying hard for upgrades to the air traffic control system.
One of the biggest issues is paying for those upgrades and the ATA is making a case that general aviation aircraft should be paying more. They say that the arrival in the next few years of hundreds of Very Light Jets — private aircraft that are expected to be the new wave of corporate jet because they're relatively inexpensive — will further crowd the skies. ATA President James May says when air traffic equipment tracks airplanes, "a blip is a blip is a blip," meaning that a small jet takes up as much airspace and a controller's time as a jumbo jet, and therefore, general aviation needs to pay more into the system.
The opposition argument from general aviation is that the radar blips representing airliners involve hundreds of people at a time and, therefore, it's justifiable that airlines pay more.
Lawmakers will decide whose right in the months ahead when the FAA reauthorization is debated, but the bottom line to airlines is that unless something is fixed, passengers are going to be inconvenienced at best, endangered at worst.
There already have been flight cancellations and delays as a result of overcrowding in the skies and that appears to be the next big issue on the horizon for companies that, for the time being, have many good reasons to smile.
Richard N. Velotta covers tourism for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4061 or by e-mail at velotta@lasvegassun.com.