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Bursting the bubble talk
Southern Nevada housing market just 'settling in'
 
By Jennifer Shubinksi / Staff Writer

Is all the talk about a Las Vegas housing bubble simply babble, or is there truth behind the doomsday soothsayers?

There has been marked change in the Las Vegas housing market over the last five years, from the wild ride a little more than a year ago when neither cash nor begging would get you a house to the increase in inventory and a "return to normalcy," said Tim Sullivan, president of the Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors.

Even in the last month the tussle for suburban land that would allow high-density residential has gotten back to normal, but prices are still high, said Sullivan, who gave a seminar this week to professionals in the local housing industry.

"We're in a transition and that's OK," he said. "We're still seeing prices go up, but the market has changed."

While those prices have gone up, statistics from local research firms show the appreciation has slowed. Sullivan said the leveling off that shows up is not from condo conversions (classified as new product) now in the marketplace, but because prices have truly slowed.

"We are now seeing smaller price increases (at new home tracts) across the board," he said. "They used to be $10,000, now maybe we'll see $1,000 increases."

Despite a softening in the market from previous go-go years, the market's fundamentals will shield it from implosion, he said.

"Get rid of the idea of a housing bubble," Sullivan said. "We are in a housing shift, the market is settling in."

A definition of a bubble is when fundamental shifts in the economy take place, when prices and conditions are not sustainable, and when there is a significant shift in pricing, such as home prices plummeting 20 percent or more, he said.

It could be argued that Las Vegas is teetering on the edge.

Price appreciation that led the nation is certainly unsustainable year after year, and there has been at least one significant downward shift in pricing (A year ago this month Pulte Homes reduced prices between 5 percent and 25 percent at four area communities.), and the macro economic climate is no longer as positive.

But is that enough to push Las Vegas over the edge?

Not even close, said Ken Perlman, vice president of the Sullivan Group.

"The fundamentals are still very strong," he said.

Job growth and tourism, factors in driving the local market, remain strong, Perlman said.

Even though consumer confidence has taken a blow nationally, the Western region of the United States remains in positive territory, Sullivan said.

"This is a pretty buoyant market," he said.

And while prices for new and resale homes might be leveling off, the price per square foot will likely continue to go up as builders construct smaller, more compact homes.

So is there a bubble in the valley?

"I'm not buying it," Sullivan said. "But are there changes? Absolutely."

Jennifer Shubinski covers real estate and development for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. She can be reached at (702) 259-8832 or by e-mail at js@lasvegassun.com.

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