As a traveler who was personally inconvenienced by a bankrupt airline -- I flew to Dallas on National Airlines hours before it shut down for good, forcing me to seek alternatives to get home -- I look cautiously at the almost inevitable bankruptcy filing contemplated by Delta Air Lines.
As of this writing, Delta had not made that scary trip to Bankruptcy Court, but analysts have been saying for months that it's coming.
Speculation intensified earlier this week when a consultant familiar with Delta's plans said the company has arranged $2 billion in debtor-in-possession financing. The news sent Delta stock to new lows as the price dipped below $1 for the second time in a month, to 85 cents a share.
By the time you read this, attorneys for Atlanta-based Delta may already have filed for bankruptcy protection in New York, the location of the court where the filing was expected to be made.
Analysts felt it was highly likely for Delta to file by Oct. 17, when bankruptcy laws change and create more hurdles for companies and individuals that want to reorganize their finances. Like all airlines, Delta has been fighting a losing battle on the cost of fuel, which has shot up like a thermometer on a critically ill patient.
The company also has been actively working with its unions for pay and benefits concessions to try to try to keep costs under control.
In my experience with National Airlines in 2002, the airline already was in bankruptcy for nearly two years, but I chose to buy a ticket. The circumstances are considerably different for Delta and most experts I've talked to say travelers shouldn't be inconvenienced if the airline suddenly files for bankruptcy protection. Tickets should be good and frequent-flier deals should be honored.
As far as Las Vegas is concerned, Delta, the nation's No. 3 commercial air carrier, has the fifth-highest market share at McCarran International Airport, providing 5.5 percent of the 77,406 seats that come into the market every day.
The airline currently has 21 flights a day between Las Vegas and seven destinations.
Most of Delta's Las Vegas flying connects the city to the airline's hub airports -- Atlanta, Salt Lake City and Cincinnati. From those cities, the airline has operations throughout the country and internationally.
Delta also operates Song, a low-cost subsidiary that flies between major population centers and resort areas. Song flights operate between Las Vegas and New York, Boston, Orlando and Fort Lauderdale.
Delta's operation in Las Vegas is characterized by its use of large aircraft. For example, American Airlines, which has more flights in and out of Las Vegas than Delta, provides a smaller percentage of seats into the market than Delta. That's because many of Delta's flights use Boeing 767 wide-body jets and high-capacity Boeing 757s. Song, in fact, uses a the twin-engine 757 jets exclusively.
Most airlines that file for bankruptcy protection emerge as smaller operations when they complete the process. Analysts have said that's a likely scenario for Delta as well.
Delta already has scaled back considerably in its efforts to stay afloat financially. One such move involved its operations in Dallas, where the airline cut most of its flights, including all of its routes between Las Vegas and Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.
The removal of Las Vegas-Dallas Delta flights didn't have much impact on the local market because several other airlines compete on the route. In addition to American, which has 11 flights a day between Las Vegas and Dallas, discounters America West and Air Tran have four and three flights, respectively.
Most of the other Las Vegas routes served by Delta have competition from other carriers. The one exception is Cincinnati. Currently, Delta's five nonstops between Las Vegas and Cincinnati are the only ones offered.
Other airlines, of course, could pick up the slack if Delta decides to downsize its Las Vegas-Cincinnati routes and passengers, of course, have other options to get there, flying carriers that make one or more stops along the way. Statistics have shown that the Las Vegas market is more viable when served with nonstop flights.
Would Las Vegas suffer when Delta becomes the third major U.S. carrier to visit Bankruptcy Court? United Airlines has operated under Chapter 11 since December 2002 and its Las Vegas operation is as large as it has always been. US Airways has made two trips to Bankruptcy Court. The end result is a merger with America West Airlines that could ultimately play out to there being better service for the city.
Hawaiian Airlines survived and now offers nonstop routes between Honolulu and Las Vegas. ATA filed and survived with a deal with Southwest Airlines that now gives Las Vegas some inexpensive flights thanks to a code-share arrangement that emerged as part of the deal.
Only the National Airlines bankruptcy has had a profound negative impact on the city and it only took about a year for other carriers to pick up the slack the Las Vegas-based airline left behind. But in that case, the big toll was on local jobs lost and employees who faced financial calamity and other uncertainties when the airline stopped flying.
And, of course, there were a few stranded passengers.
Richard N. Velotta covers tourism for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4061 or by e-mail at velotta@lasvegassun.com.