At a recent gathering of real estate executives, Las Vegas industry analyst John Restrepo told the crowd that as of June 5 there were an estimated 53,000 condominium units on the drawing board.

Given the current pace of residential development, Restrepo, principal with the Restrepo Consulting Group LLC, said those numbers would represent a two-year supply of housing in the Las Vegas Valley.

Still, he expects that as many as half of those units will never be built and pointed out that condo units have very little to do with the housing supply for local residents. Sixty to 80 percent of the condo buyers are "speculators" and another large chunk are foreign investors.

It marks a dramatic change for the Las Vegas market from the years of "quiet, consistent growth" that defined the valley, Restrepo said.

"We've been discovered," he said. "That's changed things quite a bit."

No one knows this better than John Riordan, vice president of sales for Turnberry Place and Turnberry Towers.

"When we came here, there was not an established demand for this type of thing," he said of Turnberry's entrance into Las Vegas in 1999 with Turnberry Place, the first-ever, large-scale condominium project in Southern Nevada.

"To what level there would be interest, no one knew. Not even us," Riordan added.

At that time, a total of five high-rise condo projects were being discussed. Only two actually succeeded -- Turnberry Place and developer Irwin Molasky's two-tower, 84-unit Park Towers.

The final of four Turnberry Place towers is scheduled for completion in 2006.

That means just about 800 of the proposed 2,252-units being kicked around in 1999 will materialize.

Turnberry is now developing Turnberry Towers at Paradise Road and Karen Avenue and the Residences at MGM Grand. As their new projects materialize, the company is now competing with the flurry of new projects as well as a changing market.

Riordan said that Turnberry Place was popular with a crowd that included a large number of retirees looking for larger units to accommodate family gatherings.

"When Turnberry place first started selling, the average age of the buyers was probably in the 60s," he said. "Now that average age has probably slipped to 45 at the newest project."

With that drop in age, buyers are looking for smaller units, pushing sizes from 3,000 square feet to closer to 1,250 square feet, Riordan said.

"The number of people buying here already in their retirement years is still pretty small," he said. "As the market matures, we will see increased demand for bigger units."

To be sure, Riordan is not at all unhappy about the increased competition. He said Turnberry has a "leg up" because the company can point to completed projects and a strong track record. He also welcomed additional hands in the effort to promote Las Vegas as a condominium destination.

"The more people we have come into the marketplace, the broader the market gets," he said. "There're more people now promoting what we're doing."

Riordan also said the condominium market has benefitted from economic diversification and the evolution of the gaming industry with a run of luxury resorts that began with Bellagio.

"As Las Vegas has grown and expanded its appeal beyond just gaming vacations, it's had a tremendous impact on a lot of businesses, not just us," he said. "That's whether it be exposure from the Bellagio or the World Market Center (furniture exposition center)."

He said such developments attracted people that "otherwise would have looked down their noses at Las Vegas."

Kevin Rademacher covers utilities and finance for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. He can be reached at (702) 259-4069 or by e-mail at kevinr@lasvegassun.com.