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Vacant land prices soaring
 
By Jennifer Shubinksi / Staff Writer

Vacant land prices in the Las Vegas Valley have outpaced even the phenomenal growth of home prices -- rising 149 percent at the end of the last year over the prior year -- and market experts don't expect to see a price decline anytime soon.

During the fourth quarter 2004, the most recent statistics available, the average price paid per acre was $520,500, compared with $208,700 during the fourth quarter 2003, research firm Applied Analysis reported.

The study, which did not separate vacant land to be used for commercial or residential use, found that the parcels ranged in size from 20 to 50 acres averaged $724,300 per acre and represented 21 percent of the total acreage that changed hands during the quarter. The report analyzed 310 transactions, totaling 1,817 acres.

The spike in land prices appears to have happened between the second and fourth quarters of 2004, when the average price of land went up almost $200,000 an acre, according to the report. Prior to those quarters, land prices saw modest price increases -- and decreases -- since 2001.

It is important to remember that market averages are just that, while each parcel maintains unique characteristics and land uses that may demand a lower or higher price.

"As long as there is a perception out there that there is a lack of developable land, land speculators and developers will continue acquiring as much property as possible, given the potential for limited land in the future," said Brian Gordon, principal at Applied Analysis.

Other reports have indicated that there is less than 10 years less of developable land remaining with the federal land disposal boundary.

The price of land within the Las Vegas Valley is why Bob Schulman, owner/ chairman of The Montecito Cos., is looking elsewhere for land investments and development opportunities.

While Montecito is still working on some retail projects in the valley, mainly in the north and northwest areas, the company has expanded to Arizona, and even California, for cheaper alternatives.

"We used to buy land (in Las Vegas) to speculate in and make a profit on, but we don't do that anymore," Schulman said. "We have determined that land prices have risen to such a level that the only way you can buy land is if you have a specific use, like a retail center or major tenants for a specific deal."

The price difference for land when Las Vegas is compared with other nearby markets is "humongous," he said.

Schulman said he expects to close on 90 acres in Fort Mojave, Ariz., sometime this week. The land, which he will resell to homebuilders, is being bought for $50,000 an acre. In Bakersfield, Calif., the company will close next month on 270 acres of residential land priced at $36,000 an acre, he said.

Schulman said he thinks the Las Vegas price run-up is in part because of amateur land speculators.

"It's kind of like the dot-com, until the bubble burst. We're a known hot market and everyone out there is trying to buy the next deal," he said. "We think they've pushed it over the top."

Many land owners are asking much more for land than someone would, or could, actually afford to pay and the build something on it, he said.

On the residential end, the land prices are causing many homebuilders to also look out of state or to outlying areas.

Despite the higher land prices, privately owned Astoria Homes is sticking to the Las Vegas Valley for now.

"The idea that land prices have more than doubled makes perfect sense to me, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was even more," said Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes.

McCormick said the cost of land is obviously pushing up the price of housing and in turn is pushing what people can afford.

"We continue to purchase it (land) and that's why we have to build at higher and higher densities," he said.

Most homebuilders would prefer to build on large contiguous parcels, but the lack of such land and the premium prices that are being demanded are causing McCormick to look at smaller parcels.

"We are now looking at anything from 5 acres on up, and some neighborhoods are no longer contiguous," he said.

Gordon doesn't expect the price of land to come down any time soon. Among some of the reasons he cites in his report:

--- Emerging parts of the valley, specifically along the Las Vegas Beltway in the southwest and west, are expected to continue with above average land purchase prices as those areas continue to develop.

--- The trend toward higher density projects, both in residential and commercial will continue to add to the increase in valley land prices.

---- Gordon said sizeable land transactions, those in the multi-millions of dollars, do tend to pull the overall valley wide average up, but that more of those types of deals are expected.

"Those are sizeable transactions and significant pricing that pulls the rest of the averages up," he said. "We also know of transactions similar to those that are likely to close in coming quarters, so the valley wide averages will be consistent or increase as we move forward."

Jennifer Shubinski covers real estate and development for In Business Las Vegas and its sister publication, the Las Vegas Sun. She can be reached at (702) 259-8832 or by e-mail at js@lasvegassun.com.

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